Emerald Isle, N.C.

Dec. 6, 2020

TO THE EDITOR:

Vaccine efficacy or vaccine effectiveness measures the proportionate reduction in cases among vaccinated persons. Vaccine efficacy is used when a study is carried out under ideal conditions. For example, during a clinical trial, vaccine effectiveness is used when a study is carried out under less than perfectly controlled conditions.

This per CNN’s John Bonifield and Maggie Fox: " CDC advisers will meet and vote soon on who gets corona virus vaccine first."

Standing in the wings, The NY Stock Market smells money plus legal risk, so Pfizer issued a Disclosure Notice on 12/18 that is a shield against law suits. The stage has been set.

Pfizer appears to have passed the most difficult technical barrier, and has developed a vaccine that seems to be 95% effective in preventing COVID-19. However, this is only an interim analysis, or merely an early look. This reported efficacy is based on a trial of only 170 individuals - an unusually small test group. Still a larger question is what is the risk? Is the financial risk to be assumed by stock holders acceptable? If law suits are off the table then risk is substantially less.

However an even larger risk is ahead and still unknown. Distribution will be very complex and demanding. The absolutely critical need for refrigeration and sanitation are not widely available at smaller sites such as your physician's office. And can such a small trial be applicable to 350,000,000 Americans?

There is more. Covid vaccine developed in the UK by Astra Zeneca and the University of Oxford were found to be highly effective in late-stage trials. In a press release, Astra Zeneca announced conclusion of trials with 20,000 volunteers and claim the vaccine is "70% effective "on average" British rules apply.

Two other vaccines — one developed by Moderna and the other through a partnership between Pfizer and BioNTech — were 95% effective in their late-stage trials. However, when patients were given two full doses, the vaccine was found to be 62% effective. And when patients had a half-dose in their first shot followed by a full dose the second time, the effectiveness rose to 90%.

Per Astra Zeneca and University of Oxford dated, 11/23/2020.on BBC, " It is not clear why the methods had different rates of efficacy. Taking both methods together, this produced an average efficacy of 70%."

This is old news but good news but very important news , but bad news for NY Stock Exchange and investors in general. On Sep 25, 2020 the CDC recently updated estimated infection fatality rates for COVID. What follows are the updated survival rates by age group - for people 69 years old or younger, the survival rate is between 99.5 percent and 99.997 percent, while for those 70 or older, it is an estimated 94.6 percent.

I am 89 and at the top end of the so called endangered group, I have survived all of the C diseases with some discomfort. I am healthy but I can't play third base at the skill level of former years.

After pondering all these data, the vaccine appears to be no more beneficial than contracting covid, and enjoying the resultant immunity that your body provides. The vaccine is a shell game with too many players and a clumsy bureaucracy making the rules. The vaccine may be worse than the disease. The gamble is your choice (for now). Do you play 70%, 95%, 99% or sit this hand out?

ELTON MATHESON

(31) comments

drewski

With all due respect sir, you may wish to look at those numbers again. to the best of my knowledge no one has died from the vaccine. if we assume a 10% death rate for 90 yr olds, or possibly severe perm injury, it seems to me a 90% effective vaccine is a better choice then waiting to get covid and hoping for long term immunity. Best of lucK sir, stay healthy!

noitall

Trusted data is hard to find. Per CDC home cite and "Death y Age Group", for United States - the Year to Date death rate for 0 to17 age group ( school age). is 0.10% For me it is 32% but I would take your 10%. Who do you trust??. Why all the fuss? Why close the schools? I look forward to your answer. An informed decision is not possible but it makes sense to me to go with the local situation. Numbers, are numbers, are numbers. And remember I do not buy green bananas.

David Collins

Definitely food for thought and only time will tell . We certainly Do Not want to require the medical types to be first in line . Should bad stuff happen to them , where will you go for care ? You think the do nothing politicians will help you ? The folks most at risk need to bite the bullet on this one . At least when you go tango uniform , you tried .

Can’t you just imagine the television ad people gearing up for an all out blitz “ If you or a loved one took the Covid Vaccine and were injured or died , call BR549 right now and our team of experienced bloodsuckers will give you a free consultation . Act now for time is limited “. Yup , the guy on the truck will be riding high on this one .

Now we have a shortage of cryogenic type freezers so only certain hospitals and clinics can store the vaccine . Was reported that New Bern has one but is it large enough ?

All the makings of a SNAFU of epic proportions .

David Collins

It is already happening ! New York , of course . A bill has been introduced to make taking the vaccine MANDATORY . For the good of public safety and all that , even in the face of reports of side effects , some severe reportedly , from the UK . Can’t wait to hear reports from Russia or perhaps No Ko . Stand by folks , this could be a bumpy ride indeed .

drewski

Not sure if this applies or not, corporate liability is one of main sticking points of covid relief bill though

The National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act (NCVIA) of 1986 (42 U.S.C. §§ 300aa-1 to 300aa-34) was signed into law by United States President Ronald Reagan as part of a larger health bill on November 14, 1986. NCVIA's purpose was to eliminate the potential financial liability of vaccine manufacturers due to vaccine injury claims[1] to ensure a stable market supply of vaccines, and to provide cost-effective arbitration for vaccine injury claims.

mpjeep

At this point in time, I don’t intend to take the vaccine and certainly need more information before changing my mind. I just don’t feel comfortable doing this.

Just too many unknowns for now. And since there are several choices, is one vaccine more effective than the other? How long does the immunity last?

I’m just not sure if I trust the information we have been given to date. Or have we been given all the “knowns” and “unknowns”? Being so early in the process, we will not have the data to compare how well the vaccine prevents the disease.

I guess we must look to medical experts for guidance. I asked my medical family practice for advice and was told “we won’t be recommending the vaccine to patients for now”.

The annual flu vaccine is only about 60% effective. And I am told that usually 70% to 90% of a given population must be immune to achieve herd protection from Covid. If this is true, and less than 70% of people take the vaccine, we don’t get to herd immunity, at best just a slow down of the pandemic.

So for now, I’ll pass, maybe wait to see how Biden, Obama, Bush, Clinton and Ski, do after their vaccinations.

drewski

I had the real flu once, I never, ever want it again. i take a flu shot every yr. The flu shot is by guess and by golly of the strains they think are making the rounds. Some yrs they do well some they miss, why we have such a large range in annual flu deaths roughly 12 to 65 k per yr. If you take a vaccine with a 90% rate, it takes you out of the herd, you are immune and can resume normal life, without fear of" the crud." I am not going to engage in death rate arguments, covid denial, or its all a plot to impose communism via face mask.

I am going to get a shot because I am tired of all this and want to return to normal life, plus there is an element of civic duty to it. in addition, besides the risk of death there is the risk of long term disability/ lung damage, other odd covid related organ damage, and financial ruin if you spend a few weeks in intensive care. I understand everyones fear/reluctance to get a shot, it is a quick roll out and therefore we dont know what long term side effects there may be. I have weighed the risks and benefits and to me taking the shot of whatever vaccine i can get is the right thing to do for me.

mpjeep

We no longer need to argue about statistics or who falls into what percentage category for help is on the way.

Biden was campaigning on the fact that Trump hasn’t handled Covid effectively and that he will have a big national plan. So he says in his first 100 days of office he will require mandatory mask wearing. Is that it Joe…..your big plans that you’ve had a year to think about? C’mon, man, You’ve got no plan.

Governors and mayors are playing on our emotions. They want to be able to say that if it saves one life, then it’s worth any cost. Of course, this seems to be the only time that they actually use that kind of philosophy.

If they wanted to save 40,000 lives a year, we would just stop people from driving, right? They would also force people to exercise and eat certain foods and possibly save 600,000 lives a year. Or ban cigarettes and save 500,000 lives a year.

Most of these lockdown orders are unconstitutional in that they are arbitrary and we are seeing some judges kick back on these mandates/edicts.

Our democratic leaders always throw out the scariests numbers, like a total number of cases since the beginning of the pandemic. That number means nothing now.

I understand the probability of risk now, and I’m going to take some risks.I don’t have a problem with masks, I wear one. And if it prevents some droplets of sneeze getting on somebody who's near, great. But they are not the end-all be-all.

And what about all of the experts telling us not to go out and buy masks back in February and March, including Dr. Fauci and the surgeon general, but now have flipped flopped.

What they’re also not telling you, is that the ability for us to treat this disease has gotten far better. People are staying in the hospital less and recovery is faster. And I can no longer play outfield like I did many years ago in my younger days.

I think we’re at the point where you have to band together and refuse to comply. I think we’re at that point right now, because survival is on the line.

David Collins

Checked with our GP and the answer was a pretty much wait and see . Quite noncommittal . Sooooo , my young bride did what she thinks is sensible and boarded that silver bird to wait it out till spring on a rather small Caribbean Island surrounded by friends and expats . No cases of Covid down there , really ! Even the mail has been quarantined for the last 7 months . They take things quite seriously and are not fearful of acting on it .

SandFiddler

A "gamble" is exactly what it is. On GMA this morning, Dr. Moncef Slaoui, said the USDA committee will be meeting to discuss the issue of a couple of people having an allergic reaction to the vaccination. They will suggest that people with allergies "should not take the vaccine until they know exactly what happened." The swine flu fiasco is an example of things that can happen with rushed vaccines. That vaccine was abruptly halted at the end of 1976 because 450 Americans developed a neurological condition which may or may not have been related to that vaccine. I will not roll up my sleeve for this vaccination until long term effects have been studied and I feel more comfortable.

JusticeForAll

Science explains the division among us. How humans/animals process, react, and respond is recorded in our history. At this point in time, we are experiencing a shift that could result in positive or negative consequences for the immediate future. Just a diversion in the process of living on this planet. No one knows the what the results will prove until we live through it, which most of us will. And, ironically, it will not matter, because we will adjust. EVOLUTION.

mpjeep

Science may well explain this issue and some adjustments need to be made.

Evolution may be to blame for high risk of advanced cancers in humans.

by University of California - San Diego

But this doesn’t follow suit of survival.

noitall

Right no. Evolution will decide the outcome - not overnight but Mother Nature is in charge.

noitall

Iron words.

mpjeep

I will gamble, because Coop’s orders Do Not follow Science.

I didn’t realize the virus magically starts infecting people at 10 p.m., but then stops as soon as we get to 5 a.m. Good to know! I’m all for common sense measures, but this is government overreach

Restaurants have to be closed at 10 p.m. and people are supposed to be home at 10 p.m. How’s that work?

College and professional sporting events get a pass on the whole curfew. People attending one of those events can stay out as late as the sporting event lasts, but amateur sporting events, other than collegiate events, don’t get a pass. What’s the difference?

Grocery stores, drug stores, gas stations and take-out and delivery food establishments are also exempt. So if you decide at midnight to go top off your gas tank or pick-up some takeout that is permissible.

And of course our precious Media have total exemption from the curfew order.

Yep, follow the science and data, Coop.

mpjeep

Fla Gov DeSantis said that the state will not require residents to take a coronavirus vaccine, and Dr. Anthony Fauci has urged against that sort of mandate.

Not sure what our crazy Gov Coop will do.

drewski

With fl gov now being sued over his cover up attempts, and generally bizarre behaviour, is it cooper who is crazy?

noitall

Coop will do whatever the plan for the day fax suggests. Close this. Open that. No partys. Coop is looking ahead - maybe a cushy job as Ambassador to France or something nice.

JusticeForAll

Evolution does not necessarily promote survival or "survival of the fittest." Please keep reading.

mpjeep

Folks who aren't scientists have to take a lot of science on trust or belief, like the view of evolution. Sounds like my belief in God, eh?

JusticeForAll

No, not even close.

David Collins

Mp is correct , help is on the way , saw where the Grand Dame of the View , Whoopi Goldberg said that Dr. Jill Biden , PHD in some type of education discipline perhaps similar to Women’s Studies , would make a great Surgeon General . What a novel idea and thought that up on her own . Sadly it is a very popular show/media outlet for our leftie friends . Yup , Slow Joe certainly has a plan and is also quite proud of his son .

Big Fat Drunk Republican

States, local and Fed gov will not have to make vaccine mandatory, however by this time next year as big functions, pro sports, NCAA and other entertainment industry events will require your immunity card.

Once the vaccine is widespread available the choice to return to normal will be yours. Either get the vaccine or don’t.

Just don’t get upset when you get excluded even small local events.

Those of you that want voter ID shouldn’t really be offended by being required to show proof,. I mean, I mean we republicans love showing proof to do stuff.

noitall

Voter ID on driver's licenses doe's not work for me. I was raised in an orphanage. and the records are fuzzy. Homeland Security thinks I am a terrorist. There are some unanswered questions about the vaccine. Watchfully waiting makes sense,

David Collins

The return of the old shot cards of the 50s and 60s . Yeah , I can see that . Bet in about 15 minutes anyone will be able to get all they want over the internet or duplicate with a PC and a copier , initially . Going to have to be quite robust , secure , linked to international data base like a passport or trusted traveler drivers license . My Covid fleeing young bride has already been put on notice that proof of the jabs , along with multiple testing results will be required for her to return to the States come April . Be interesting to see how she and her fellow expats manage to pull that off . Probably will not be a cheap date to go out with , seeing how all Americans are thought of as millionaires . Just a drop in the bucket . Cha-Ching .

mpjeep

Back in May, Trump said we will have a vaccine by years end. The Leftist Media said it would never happen, without a miracle. We should all thank Trump for pushing so hard on Operation Warp Speed.

Jackie Gleason

Let's not all tear each other apart. There are things we can agree on. (1) The virus came from China long before published reports (by Government officials) confirmed the existence. (2) Wearing masks and social distancing may have initially worked but now for some reason they are not necessarily working. Could someone with some intelligence in the science or political world tell us why? Maybe the protocols of execution are not being followed properly? (3) Vaccine or no vaccine, you want to be stuck or don't want to be stuck.....it doesn't matter at this point. If you are in the categories of high risk....act like it is high risk. If you rein the category of low risk....act like it is low risk and assume all the consequences old and young. By the 20th of January the COVID headlines will be third page news with Biden leading the charge to help everyone. People dying will not longer be an issue as "it could have been worse". Love life, enjoy yourself , and forget it even exists.

mpjeep

I enjoy your thought process jackie. Also used to watch you TV show a lot as well.

noitall

There is one shot you had better take if you have had chicken pox. There is a shingles vaccine available Shingles is a hurtful thing - take my word.

mpjeep

Liberals in this country are evolving into Illiberals.

mpjeep

A health care worker in Alaska suffered an adverse reaction minutes after receiving Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine, suffered an anaphylactic reaction that required hospitalization and monitoring, and will not be receiving the second dose of the vaccine,

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