Emerald Isle, N.C.
Dec. 6, 2020
TO THE EDITOR:
Vaccine efficacy or vaccine effectiveness measures the proportionate reduction in cases among vaccinated persons. Vaccine efficacy is used when a study is carried out under ideal conditions. For example, during a clinical trial, vaccine effectiveness is used when a study is carried out under less than perfectly controlled conditions.
This per CNN’s John Bonifield and Maggie Fox: " CDC advisers will meet and vote soon on who gets corona virus vaccine first."
Standing in the wings, The NY Stock Market smells money plus legal risk, so Pfizer issued a Disclosure Notice on 12/18 that is a shield against law suits. The stage has been set.
Pfizer appears to have passed the most difficult technical barrier, and has developed a vaccine that seems to be 95% effective in preventing COVID-19. However, this is only an interim analysis, or merely an early look. This reported efficacy is based on a trial of only 170 individuals - an unusually small test group. Still a larger question is what is the risk? Is the financial risk to be assumed by stock holders acceptable? If law suits are off the table then risk is substantially less.
However an even larger risk is ahead and still unknown. Distribution will be very complex and demanding. The absolutely critical need for refrigeration and sanitation are not widely available at smaller sites such as your physician's office. And can such a small trial be applicable to 350,000,000 Americans?
There is more. Covid vaccine developed in the UK by Astra Zeneca and the University of Oxford were found to be highly effective in late-stage trials. In a press release, Astra Zeneca announced conclusion of trials with 20,000 volunteers and claim the vaccine is "70% effective "on average" British rules apply.
Two other vaccines — one developed by Moderna and the other through a partnership between Pfizer and BioNTech — were 95% effective in their late-stage trials. However, when patients were given two full doses, the vaccine was found to be 62% effective. And when patients had a half-dose in their first shot followed by a full dose the second time, the effectiveness rose to 90%.
Per Astra Zeneca and University of Oxford dated, 11/23/2020.on BBC, " It is not clear why the methods had different rates of efficacy. Taking both methods together, this produced an average efficacy of 70%."
This is old news but good news but very important news , but bad news for NY Stock Exchange and investors in general. On Sep 25, 2020 the CDC recently updated estimated infection fatality rates for COVID. What follows are the updated survival rates by age group - for people 69 years old or younger, the survival rate is between 99.5 percent and 99.997 percent, while for those 70 or older, it is an estimated 94.6 percent.
I am 89 and at the top end of the so called endangered group, I have survived all of the C diseases with some discomfort. I am healthy but I can't play third base at the skill level of former years.
After pondering all these data, the vaccine appears to be no more beneficial than contracting covid, and enjoying the resultant immunity that your body provides. The vaccine is a shell game with too many players and a clumsy bureaucracy making the rules. The vaccine may be worse than the disease. The gamble is your choice (for now). Do you play 70%, 95%, 99% or sit this hand out?