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Ranking top college football teams in state
NEWS-TIMES "KEEPIN' IT REAL"
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EVANS KISTLER
Last week, I took a look at the three high school football teams and gave my two cents on how I saw their seasons shake out.
Since I was feeling a little braver this week, I’ll tackle an even touchier subject – the college football landscape.
It is no secret that UNC-Chapel Hill is a basketball-first state as the football histories of the big five upper-tier schools statewide pale in comparison to their histories with the roundball.
I am well aware that Duke was a national powerhouse football team in the 1930s and 1940s. I know from 1947-1950, UNC had Charlie “Choo-Choo” Justice chugging along the sidelines, and I am aware of Roman Gabriel’s prowess as one of the best quarterbacks of the 1960s while at N.C. State.
But North Carolina boasts 10 basketball national championships (UNC-5, Duke-3, N.C. State-2) and a host of household names, including the best NBA player in the history of the game in Michael Jordan and the best college player in the history of the game in David Thompson.
But that doesn’t mean that a team or two from North Carolina couldn’t get back into the national spotlight on the gridiron.
Duke
Duke is the only school in the state to have constantly been mentioned nationally since the mid 1980s, and that is for their ineptitude. So suffice to say, Duke is the furthest away from being nationally perceived in a positive light.
But in 2009 under second-year coach David Cutcliffe, the Blue Devils might make the jump from punch line to obscurity, and that is not a bad thing.
Duke returns second team All-ACC quarterback Thaddeus Lewis and the team’s 2006 and 2007 leading rusher Re’quan Boyette, who missed the whole of last year due to injury.
And for Duke to have two ACC players of note is an accomplishment of itself.
The loss of team and ACC leading tackler Michael Tauiliili who had 140 stops, will hurt.
But in Cutcliffe’s first season, Duke was 4-8 overall and 1-7 in the ACC, and both the offense and defense drastically improved statistically.
So there is no reason to think that won’t happen again in 2009. However, the Blue Devils’ problems stem from how bad they were and how far they have to improve to just be competitive in games.
Duke faces off against two Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) foes in Richmond and North Carolina Central and should chalk both of those games in the win category.
The Blue Devils have Army and Kansas as their other two non-ACC opponents, and a win over Army and big loss at Kansas should be how those two contests shake out.
On its ACC slate, Duke has Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Maryland, Virginia, UNC, Georgia Tech, Miami and finally Wake Forest.
The Blue Devils walloped UVa in 2008 and should again this year. Duke might have one more win in them against UNC or Maryland, but neither are likely.
So I see Duke as 4-8 for a second year in a row. They should finish ahead of UVa in the Coastal Division in fifth, but the Iron Dukes will not be spending extra on a bowl trip this year.
East Carolina
East Carolina University fans should keep their holidays open as this year’s schedule sets up to be a busy Christmas/New Year’s.
The Pirates finished the 2008 year 9-5 overall and won the Conference USA title.
Head coach Skip Holtz flat out rejected Syracuse’s offer in the off-season to be their head coach, so all of the talk that the coach would, ahem, skip out to a bigger conference turned out to be just that – talk.
And Holtz has a lot of talent to work with this year as the team’s leading quarterback Patrick Pinkney, leading rusher Norman Whitley, leading receiver Dwayne Harris, leading tackler Nick Johnson, top field goal kicker Ben Hartman and leading punter and West Carteret graduate Matt Dodge from a year ago all return.
Dodge, who finished with the 14th best punting average in the nation at 43.9 yards, was named to the preseason Ray Guy Award Watch List, which is given out to the best punter in the nation.
With all of those puzzle pieces back, the Pirates are the favorite to repeat their conference championship.
ECU opens the season with FCS opponent Appalachian State, which is not hardly a pushover, then travels to West Virginia and UNC.
ECU will beat App. State and UNC but will fall to West Virginia to start the season 2-1. The Pirates host Virginia Tech smack dab in the middle of the conference schedule on Nov. 5, and while they surprised the Hokies last year with a 27-22 victory, I don’t see it happening again.
Last year, ECU lost to conference foes Houston and Southern Miss, but only the Golden Eagles remain on their schedule in 2009.
The Pirates’ Conference USA slate is Central Florida, Marshall, Southern Methodist, Rice, Memphis, Tulsa, University of Alabama and Southern Mississippi. I see ECU falling to Tulsa in its only C-USA loss, facing Houston in the championship game and winning.
That would put the Pirates at 10-3 with another visit to the Liberty Bowl, where they will lose to an SEC opponent.
N.C. State
N.C. State hopes to avoid another loss to an SEC opponent to open the 2009 season as for the second year in a row and will face South Carolina to open the college football season on national television, Thursday, Sept. 3, on ESPN.
Last season, the Wolfpack held their own against the Gamecocks until quarterback Russell Wilson was knocked out and did not return. State was embarrassed 34-0, but the old adage of “it’s not how you start but how you finish that counts” fit well with the 2008 Pack.
After going 2-6, State won its last four to finish 6-6 and made a bowl game by the skin of its teeth.
Last season was one mired by injury for State, and unfortunately, 2009 started out in much the same fashion. Arguably, the best player on the team, linebacker Nate Irving, was injured in a car crash and is out indefinitely.
But State does return Wilson who, when healthy, is the best signal caller in the ACC, and his backup, Mike Glennon is no slouch either. Running back Toney Baker returns after two years of injury, as does Jamelle Eugene. Owen Spencer and Jarvis Williams anchor the wide receiving corps, and defensive lineman Willie Young will have to lead the defense in Irving’s absence.
In addition to USC, State has FCS opponents Murray State, Gardner-Webb and Pittsburgh all at home for its nonconference games.
Look for the Pack to drop the Gamecocks and both FCS opponents but fall to the preseason favorite to win the Big East – Pittsburgh.
State has had difficulty finishing with more than four wins in the ACC since the days of Chuck Amato, but this year, head coach Tom O’Brien should surpass that number.
The Wolfpack starts off at Wake Forest, with the rest of their ACC schedule shaking out with Duke, Boston College, Florida State, Maryland, Clemson, Virginia Tech and finally North Carolina.
I think State beats Wake, Duke and Boston College to start out 3-0. FSU will probably get the best of the Pack, as will Virginia Tech. State should beat Maryland, Clemson, then top UNC for the third year in a row to end the regular season 9-3. That would give them a second-place finish in the Atlantic Division and land the Pack in the Gator Bowl.
Chapel Hill
While State will be in the bowl picture, its main football rival, UNC, will struggle to find the wins to play in the postseason.
The Tar Heels had a strong 2008 season under Butch Davis, going 8-5 overall and 4-4 in ACC play, but most of their successes came through an extraordinary group of wide receivers, led by Hakeem Nicks and Brandon Tate (when he was not hurt). Unfortunately for UNC, the Heels lost five of their top six wide receivers from 2008 and are looking to converted running back Greg Little to lead the group.
Quarterback T.J. Yates returns but was injury-prone and looked better with big talent to throw to.
Top rusher from 2008 Shaun Draughn returns to make the ground game the Tar Heels’ strength offensively.
UNC landed a good group of talented freshmen, but football has to be the hardest sport for a young player to come in and make an immediate impact. Freshman wideouts Joshua Adams and Jheranie Boyd should help with the missing pieces.
The Heels return eight starters on defense, including leading tackler Quan Sturdivant, but last season, UNC finished 78th defensively in yards per game.
Nonconference-wise, the Heels face FCS opponents The Citadel and Georgia Southern, as well as a game at Connecticut and at home against ECU. UNC should go 3-1 with a lone loss to ECU.
UNC opens ACC play at Georgia Tech then has Virginia, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Duke, Miami, Boston College and N.C. State.
UNC should find wins against UVa and Boston College, but the rest of its schedule will be difficult. Miami should be a loss, as should both Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. Florida State and N.C. State will also be losses, meaning the Duke game is huge for the Tar Heels. UNC should win that one, but stranger things have happened, and Carolina could drop a close one to their rival.
I see the Heels finishing 6-6 (beating Duke), finishing fourth in the Coastal and missing out on the postseason because they will need seven wins to be bowl eligible due to the two FCS opponents.
Wake Forest
Wake Forest doesn’t have the problem of needing seven wins to make a bowl game since they only have one FCS cupcake, Elon, to feast upon.
Every year it seems, everyone sleeps on Wake Forest and head coach Jim Grobe, and every year, Wake surprises someone.
Last year, Wake went 8-5 overall and 4-4 in conference play, and this year, they should surprise again.
The Demon Deacons lose the heart and soul of their defense in Aaron Curry but return the ACC’s second-best quarterback, Riley Skinner, the team’s top rushers of Brandon Pendergrass and Josh Adams, and have their second best receiver back in Marshall Williams from a year ago.
Wake should sweep its nonconference opponents Baylor, Stanford, Elon and Navy, but their ACC games are going to be a bit trickier.
The Deacs start ACC play with a trip to Boston College then have N.C. State, Maryland, Clemson, Miami, Georgia Tech, Florida State and Duke.
Boston College, Maryland and Duke should be wins, but Clemson, State, Miami and Georgia Tech should be losses.
For the past three years, Wake has beaten Florida State, and if Grobe tops FSU coach Bobby Bowden again, he will be just the third coach in history to accomplish that feat. Jimmy Johnson at Miami in 1985-1988 and Urban Meyer at Florida in 2005-2008 are the only other two coaches to beat Bowden four straight years.
I think Wake can do it and hand FSU its only ACC loss of the regular season.
That would put the Deacs at 8-4 overall, 4-4 in conference play and tied for third place in the Atlantic Division.
Unfortunately for Wake, their small fan base and small TV draw will relegate them to a lower tier bowl, most likely the GMAC bowl.
So there it is my long and drawn out North Carolina college football prediction. If you disagree, I’d love to hear about it.
(Send comments or questions to evans@thenewstimes.com)
Last week, I took a look at the three high school football teams and gave my two cents on how I saw their seasons shake out.
Since I was feeling a little braver this week, I’ll tackle an even touchier subject – the college football landscape.
It is no secret that UNC-Chapel Hill is a basketball-first state as the football histories of the big five upper-tier schools statewide pale in comparison to their histories with the roundball.
I am well aware that Duke was a national powerhouse football team in the 1930s and 1940s. I know from 1947-1950, UNC had Charlie “Choo-Choo” Justice chugging along the sidelines, and I am aware of Roman Gabriel’s prowess as one of the best quarterbacks of the 1960s while at N.C. State.
But North Carolina boasts 10 basketball national championships (UNC-5, Duke-3, N.C. State-2) and a host of household names, including the best NBA player in the history of the game in Michael Jordan and the best college player in the history of the game in David Thompson.
Duke
Duke is the only school in the state to have constantly been mentioned nationally since the mid 1980s, and that is for their ineptitude. So suffice to say, Duke is the furthest away from being nationally perceived in a positive light.
But in 2009 under second-year coach David Cutcliffe, the Blue Devils might make the jump from punch line to obscurity, and that is not a bad thing.
Duke returns second team All-ACC quarterback Thaddeus Lewis and the team’s 2006 and 2007 leading rusher Re’quan Boyette, who missed the whole of last year due to injury.
And for Duke to have two ACC players of note is an accomplishment of itself.
The loss of team and ACC leading tackler Michael Tauiliili who had 140 stops, will hurt.
But in Cutcliffe’s first season, Duke was 4-8 overall and 1-7 in the ACC, and both the offense and defense drastically improved statistically.
So there is no reason to think that won’t happen again in 2009. However, the Blue Devils’ problems stem from how bad they were and how far they have to improve to just be competitive in games.
Duke faces off against two Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) foes in Richmond and North Carolina Central and should chalk both of those games in the win category.
The Blue Devils have Army and Kansas as their other two non-ACC opponents, and a win over Army and big loss at Kansas should be how those two contests shake out.
On its ACC slate, Duke has Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Maryland, Virginia, UNC, Georgia Tech, Miami and finally Wake Forest.
The Blue Devils walloped UVa in 2008 and should again this year. Duke might have one more win in them against UNC or Maryland, but neither are likely.
So I see Duke as 4-8 for a second year in a row. They should finish ahead of UVa in the Coastal Division in fifth, but the Iron Dukes will not be spending extra on a bowl trip this year.
East Carolina
East Carolina University fans should keep their holidays open as this year’s schedule sets up to be a busy Christmas/New Year’s.
The Pirates finished the 2008 year 9-5 overall and won the Conference USA title.
Head coach Skip Holtz flat out rejected Syracuse’s offer in the off-season to be their head coach, so all of the talk that the coach would, ahem, skip out to a bigger conference turned out to be just that – talk.
And Holtz has a lot of talent to work with this year as the team’s leading quarterback Patrick Pinkney, leading rusher Norman Whitley, leading receiver Dwayne Harris, leading tackler Nick Johnson, top field goal kicker Ben Hartman and leading punter and West Carteret graduate Matt Dodge from a year ago all return.
Dodge, who finished with the 14th best punting average in the nation at 43.9 yards, was named to the preseason Ray Guy Award Watch List, which is given out to the best punter in the nation.
With all of those puzzle pieces back, the Pirates are the favorite to repeat their conference championship.
ECU opens the season with FCS opponent Appalachian State, which is not hardly a pushover, then travels to West Virginia and UNC.
ECU will beat App. State and UNC but will fall to West Virginia to start the season 2-1. The Pirates host Virginia Tech smack dab in the middle of the conference schedule on Nov. 5, and while they surprised the Hokies last year with a 27-22 victory, I don’t see it happening again.
Last year, ECU lost to conference foes Houston and Southern Miss, but only the Golden Eagles remain on their schedule in 2009.
The Pirates’ Conference USA slate is Central Florida, Marshall, Southern Methodist, Rice, Memphis, Tulsa, University of Alabama and Southern Mississippi. I see ECU falling to Tulsa in its only C-USA loss, facing Houston in the championship game and winning.
That would put the Pirates at 10-3 with another visit to the Liberty Bowl, where they will lose to an SEC opponent.
N.C. State
N.C. State hopes to avoid another loss to an SEC opponent to open the 2009 season as for the second year in a row and will face South Carolina to open the college football season on national television, Thursday, Sept. 3, on ESPN.
Last season, the Wolfpack held their own against the Gamecocks until quarterback Russell Wilson was knocked out and did not return. State was embarrassed 34-0, but the old adage of “it’s not how you start but how you finish that counts” fit well with the 2008 Pack.
After going 2-6, State won its last four to finish 6-6 and made a bowl game by the skin of its teeth.
Last season was one mired by injury for State, and unfortunately, 2009 started out in much the same fashion. Arguably, the best player on the team, linebacker Nate Irving, was injured in a car crash and is out indefinitely.
But State does return Wilson who, when healthy, is the best signal caller in the ACC, and his backup, Mike Glennon is no slouch either. Running back Toney Baker returns after two years of injury, as does Jamelle Eugene. Owen Spencer and Jarvis Williams anchor the wide receiving corps, and defensive lineman Willie Young will have to lead the defense in Irving’s absence.
In addition to USC, State has FCS opponents Murray State, Gardner-Webb and Pittsburgh all at home for its nonconference games.
Look for the Pack to drop the Gamecocks and both FCS opponents but fall to the preseason favorite to win the Big East – Pittsburgh.
State has had difficulty finishing with more than four wins in the ACC since the days of Chuck Amato, but this year, head coach Tom O’Brien should surpass that number.
The Wolfpack starts off at Wake Forest, with the rest of their ACC schedule shaking out with Duke, Boston College, Florida State, Maryland, Clemson, Virginia Tech and finally North Carolina.
I think State beats Wake, Duke and Boston College to start out 3-0. FSU will probably get the best of the Pack, as will Virginia Tech. State should beat Maryland, Clemson, then top UNC for the third year in a row to end the regular season 9-3. That would give them a second-place finish in the Atlantic Division and land the Pack in the Gator Bowl.
Chapel Hill
While State will be in the bowl picture, its main football rival, UNC, will struggle to find the wins to play in the postseason.
The Tar Heels had a strong 2008 season under Butch Davis, going 8-5 overall and 4-4 in ACC play, but most of their successes came through an extraordinary group of wide receivers, led by Hakeem Nicks and Brandon Tate (when he was not hurt). Unfortunately for UNC, the Heels lost five of their top six wide receivers from 2008 and are looking to converted running back Greg Little to lead the group.
Quarterback T.J. Yates returns but was injury-prone and looked better with big talent to throw to.
Top rusher from 2008 Shaun Draughn returns to make the ground game the Tar Heels’ strength offensively.
UNC landed a good group of talented freshmen, but football has to be the hardest sport for a young player to come in and make an immediate impact. Freshman wideouts Joshua Adams and Jheranie Boyd should help with the missing pieces.
The Heels return eight starters on defense, including leading tackler Quan Sturdivant, but last season, UNC finished 78th defensively in yards per game.
Nonconference-wise, the Heels face FCS opponents The Citadel and Georgia Southern, as well as a game at Connecticut and at home against ECU. UNC should go 3-1 with a lone loss to ECU.
UNC opens ACC play at Georgia Tech then has Virginia, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Duke, Miami, Boston College and N.C. State.
UNC should find wins against UVa and Boston College, but the rest of its schedule will be difficult. Miami should be a loss, as should both Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. Florida State and N.C. State will also be losses, meaning the Duke game is huge for the Tar Heels. UNC should win that one, but stranger things have happened, and Carolina could drop a close one to their rival.
I see the Heels finishing 6-6 (beating Duke), finishing fourth in the Coastal and missing out on the postseason because they will need seven wins to be bowl eligible due to the two FCS opponents.
Wake Forest
Wake Forest doesn’t have the problem of needing seven wins to make a bowl game since they only have one FCS cupcake, Elon, to feast upon.
Every year it seems, everyone sleeps on Wake Forest and head coach Jim Grobe, and every year, Wake surprises someone.
Last year, Wake went 8-5 overall and 4-4 in conference play, and this year, they should surprise again.
The Demon Deacons lose the heart and soul of their defense in Aaron Curry but return the ACC’s second-best quarterback, Riley Skinner, the team’s top rushers of Brandon Pendergrass and Josh Adams, and have their second best receiver back in Marshall Williams from a year ago.
Wake should sweep its nonconference opponents Baylor, Stanford, Elon and Navy, but their ACC games are going to be a bit trickier.
The Deacs start ACC play with a trip to Boston College then have N.C. State, Maryland, Clemson, Miami, Georgia Tech, Florida State and Duke.
Boston College, Maryland and Duke should be wins, but Clemson, State, Miami and Georgia Tech should be losses.
For the past three years, Wake has beaten Florida State, and if Grobe tops FSU coach Bobby Bowden again, he will be just the third coach in history to accomplish that feat. Jimmy Johnson at Miami in 1985-1988 and Urban Meyer at Florida in 2005-2008 are the only other two coaches to beat Bowden four straight years.
I think Wake can do it and hand FSU its only ACC loss of the regular season.
That would put the Deacs at 8-4 overall, 4-4 in conference play and tied for third place in the Atlantic Division.
Unfortunately for Wake, their small fan base and small TV draw will relegate them to a lower tier bowl, most likely the GMAC bowl.
So there it is my long and drawn out North Carolina college football prediction. If you disagree, I’d love to hear about it.
(Send comments or questions to evans@thenewstimes.com)
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